Comparison

What makes people feel happier? My answer is comparison. When people are comparing the present with the past and comparing themselves with others, if they find they are better, they are highly likely to be happier. If my belief is true, then people living in a imaginary ideal society where everyone is equal and the living standards are good and stable may not be happy because they do not feel they are better than the past or others, so this ideal society may not be ideal.

Comparison is an important motivation for the society to develop. When people are comparing themselves with the past or others, they are trying to make themselves better than others or their past; when everyone in the society is doing the same, the society is pushed to move forward. However, this does not make we should make the differences within the society wider. A too wide gap may make people feel hopeless; when they making comparisons, they find the gaps become wider and wider, they will certainly feel unhappy. Such unhappiness in the beginning may make people work harder, but if they find they are nowhere near to close this gap, the unhappiness will make them pessimistic and loss incentives to work hard.

However, it is difficult to fully manage people's comparison, because people can make comparison from too many angles and aspects. For example, they may live better than the past, but they compare their improving rate with the previous generations and find the rate is much slowers, so they still feel unhappy (or unsatisfied).

Comparison makes people jealous, but comparison may be the foundmental motivation for many of our activities.

Brexit updates

Theresa May plans to delay Brexit if the Parliament fails to pass the revised Brexit deal; however, more than 100 Conservative MPs refused to back the PM on this delay. The Prime Minister never has her party's full support on Brexit since Day 1. The Labour Party's alternative Brexit plan was defeated by 323 votes to 240 on Wednesday; after the defeat, the Labour Party is now committed to backing a second Brexit referendum.

If there is a second Brexit referendum, the 'Stay' campaign I think is more likely to win the referendum than the 'Leave' campaign, given the current chaotic situation. However, many 'Leave' politicians will try their best to block this second Brexit referendum. Their political careers are depending of Brexit that their careers will end if Britain stays in the EU eventually. Furthermore, I do not believe that the Tory Party will support a second referendum in general. The last referendum was proposed by the Tory Party; once there is another referendum, it will prove the failure of the first one, so the Tory Party will not be pleased to see another referendum happening.

Overall, Brexit is now getting more dramatic, and the uncertainty surrounding this matter is increasing every day.

The delay of Brexit

So far Brexit is quite a mess that there is not a single voice which can direct the UK to leave the EU in a way pleasing most people. The UK Prime Minister, Theresa May, admitted that Brexit could be delayed if the Parliament could not pass the revised Brexit plan next month. The delay is not a piece of bad news.

Currently, the UK is not ready for Brexit that the country has been divided by Brexit. The British people including politicians have not agreed with how to make Britain leave the EU; moreover, some people actually want Brexit to messy enough so Brexit becomes unpopular to be processed eventually. Delaying Brexit can buy more time for the British people, especially the politicians, to think what the UK wants and does not want from the EU.

However, the delay may not be a good thing for businesses. The longer it takes, more uncertainties the businesses have to face, because time itself can produce more uncertainties. The delay is very likely to increase the costs of the businesses significantly.

Overall, the delay may be create a better future for the UK in the long run, but it could increase uncertainties for the businesses in the short run, causing short run economic losses.

The US-China trade

Chinese stocks rose to bull market territory on Monday after the US president Trump said that he would delay a rise in US tariffs on Chinese goods. The delay of US tariffs provided a relief on the US-China trade tension; previously, Trump also softened his tone on Huawei as well. A series of stories are showing the trade issue between China and the US might be possible to be resolved in the very near future. The Chinese economy is still dependent of exporting; actually all countries want to export as many goods and services as possible, as increasing exports can help to increase GDP. The trade tension between China and the US definitely raised concerns about the future performances of these two economies, especially the Chinese economy; the relief of the trade tension will increase people's expectations about the performances of these two economies. Therefore, it is not surprising to see the Chinese stock market rising.

However, it is possible that the market may be too confident about the trade issue between the US and China. The relationship between the US and China has always been very complicated that the two countries often cooperate in some areas but compete with each other in other areas. The current US president is a very unpredictable man who may choose his mind at some point in the future. It is only a delay not a cancellation, which means the tariffs may still be imposed in the future. Moreover, many US politicians see China as the biggest threat to the US's dominating position in the world and they will try their best to impose influence on the US president and direct the US policy in a hostile way towards China. Therefore, there are still many uncertainties ahead of China in terms of its relationship with the US.

It is good to see the delay of the tariffs but I do not think that people should be too optimistic about the current status.

This week’s news

The news this week is generally positive. The trade negotiation between the US and China have made some progress, especially the US President Trump has softened his tone on Huawei. Since Trump softened his tone on Huawei, many of the US allies have announced that they will include Huawei in their 5G projects. Because Huawei offers an opportunity of making the next-generation 5G networks arrive a year earlier, no country wants to miss such opportunity. Besides some relief of the trade tension between the US and China, there is some more positive news. The balance sheet of the US Federal Reserve is very positive and strong, comparing with what the Fed had before the financial crisis. This definitely gives the market more confidence that even if there is a financial crisis coming, the US Fed has the ability to counter the crisis. Furthermore, even the UK has some good news that the UK government received £14.9bn more than it spent in January, which was the largest surplus since 1993.

However, there is some negative news. The British politics has become even more divisive, not only the Tory party has ben divisive, the Labour Party is not any better either that several Labour MPs have chosen to leave the Party.

Can Huawei be left out in the coming 5G generation?

The US is lobbying its allies not to use Huawei technology in their 5G networks, the reason given by the US is that the technology can be used by Beijing for spying, which has no evidence yet. Surprisingly, the US president Trump is softening his tone on the Huawei and wrote on his Tiwitter, ‘I want the United States to win through competition, not by blocking out currently more advanced technologies’. It is undoubted that Huawei is the global leader in the next-generation 5G network technology; if the concerns did not exist, Huawei would have become the first choice of most countries in terms of building their 5G networks.

Some research has shown that without using Huawei technology, building 5G networks could potentially take further 18 months. This is a cost that cannot be ignored. In the 4G world, there have been so many achievements, including mobile payments. Many online services advance their businesses via the coming of the 4G generation. Being 18 months late in the 5G generation can potentially drag down the development significantly, which is a risk that no country is willing to take.

At the moment, no one can fully know what is going to happen in the 5G generation, some expect AR and VR will advance their usages in the 5G generation but no one can be absoultely certain. Being left out in the 5G is a risk that no country wants to take, so they have to use Huawei technology to build their 5G networks as fast as possible.

To what extent can the US influence other countries' policy making?

The US is the world's most powerful country that has great influence over other countries, especially its allies. The US has a long history of influencing its allies' policy making; for example, it persuades its allies to purchase its military defense products instead of other countries' products. Recently, the US is trying to persuade its allies to ban Huawei in their 5G projects. So far, some companies, including Vodafone, have announced that they will reconsider the use of Huawei equipment in their 5G projects. However, there has been no proven evidence showing the Huawei equipment has given the Chinese government the power to spy on other nations as the US government claims. Furthermore, Ciaran Martin, the chief executive of the UK's National Cyber Security Centre, said that strict controls and oversight could offset the risks of Huawei raised by the US intelligence. From the Huawei case, we can see that the US influence definitely works but it cannot completely overturn other countries' policies.

I agree with Putin on one of his statements that no country is completely independent. Countries can always influence each other to some extent; and of course, larger and more powerful countries have great momentum in the global political network. The US has got great momentum in the world politics; however, large countries have great momentum because they can create greater impacts other nations. When countries are making policies, they are doing cost and benefit analysis. Therefore, when a government faces pressure from other nation, including the US, if the government finds cooperation can bring more benefits or less harm, then the government will cooperate, and vice versa.

Therefore, as long as the US can voluntarily create significant influence over other countries, the US government can generate significant influence over other countries in terms of their policy making.