Wednesday 27 July 2016

Several things that we may be too optimistic

First of all, the UK stock has almost recovered from the shock created Brexit. Brexit is still happening and the negotiations have not started yet that we cannot expect that Brexit will not make any impact on the British market. Maybe the sharp drop after the referendum was an overreaction by the market; however, I think the current market growth is too optimistic, though the labour market data seems very strong. Secondly, the US Fed announced that there could be a second interest rate increase later this year due to the market momentum. I do not disagree with the Fed's opinion. However, as we can see a lot from the past that growth always takes relatively slow paces, but the collapse of our systems could happen suddenly. It is important to consider carefully about the side effects of all policies, although there is no absolute security. Overall we can see that people could be frightened by shocks, but much less sensitive about some long term changes.

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