Black swan and its computability

One of three important characteristics of black swan events is its non-computability and one of the most important factors that cause the economic crises is these black swan events. As I mentioned yesterday, the most common way to deal with black swan events is to ignore these black swan events, because usually, these events are unknown. If we do not know the existence of these black swan events or their causes, we do not have any effective way to estimate their likelihood and their expected costs. Yesterday I said that terrorist attacks could be seen as black swan events; however, the governments cannot treat terrorist attacks as black swan events and they use all available resources to find information about the possibilities of terrorist attacks and estimate the possibilities. The actions taken by the governments make terrorist attacks no longer black swan events, as when the more information is held, the easier it becomes to estimate the possibility.

It is the same for other known black swan events; of course, we still do not have any method to deal with unknown black swan events. For known black swan events, the main reason for the existence of known black swan events is their causes are complicated or unknown. When having more information, it helps to understand some of their causes and improve the accuracy of estimating the possibilities. However, collecting information has costs, especially when collecting difficult and complicated information. In addition, the costs also increase when using the collected information to conduct complicated models to estimate the possibilities. It is impossible to estimate the possibilities perfectly. When dealing more complicated factors, the costs increase significantly, as they have to recruit experts and buy high-speed computers to design and conduct complicated models. When the costs of collecting information and estimation are too high, some events automatically become black swan events.