What is today's biggest news? The ECB's new expansionary
stimulus. Today Mario Draghi, the
president of the European Central Bank (ECB) has announced his new policy of
cutting its benchmark rates as well as providing cheap short-term loans and
longer -term liquidity and expanding the QE. How satisfied is the market? Not
quite. As we can see from today's market response, the market rally quickly
burnt out quickly after the ECB's announcement. Why? Firstly, Draghi said he
would not cut the rates further unless some extreme cases happen. This signals
the market that the ECB's further stimulus will be very limited. Secondly, the
further rate cut increases inflation risks that the market fears that all the
inflationary pressure could explode some time in the future at once. Thirdly,
the stimulus does not meet everyone's demand. Some economists suggest that it
only meets the minimum requirement. My opinion is the ECB has done almost
everything can be done, the problem of the European market is a structural
problem in some particular countries. Ireland suffered the subprime crisis but
now has the fastest growth in Europe, this shows that the ECB's policy works.
The failure in some countries is caused by their structural failure, rather
than lack of stimulus from the ECB. Therefore, I do not think there will be
another cut in rates in the near future, especially big cuts; I believe the
real solution of the European economy is upon those governments and it is
necessary for them to restructure their economies when the global economy is far from optimistic.
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