Once receiving information, the market fluctuates very intensely at the start. Then the market move
will turn to be moderate and move around the true market expected value. When
information is just received, people concentrate at the two ends; however, as
time progresses, people are moving towards the average, which is the market
expected value. There is a recent example, which shows such effect. The London
major, Boris, announced his support of letting Britain leave the EU. After his
announcement, the UK bond market and foreign currency market experienced huge
fluctuations. However, now the markets tend to move much less intense.
However, I have some questions: what factors decide how intensely the market
fluctuates and how long the intense fluctuation lasts. I can think of several
factors but have not done any precise data analysis: macroeconomics information
tend to make intense fluctuation longer, more surprising information will make
fluctuation more intense. The problems here are what decides whether a piece of
information is macroeconomics information or microeconomics information, and
what makes information more surprising and is measurable (or at least able to
be ranked objectively).
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