Friday 13 May 2016

Risk and uncertainty

According to Knight 1921, risk and uncertainty are different: when we know something's probability objectively, then it is a risk, oppositely it is uncertainty. By this definition, when we go into a casino, we face risks instead of uncertainties, because the probability of winning objectively exists. However, actually almost all what we see in our financial system in our opinions are uncertainty as people cannot observe the probabilities accurately due to the complexity of the system. The probability of a crisis could objectively exist but we do not have the ability know the probability as the system is always changing and the probability is also changing. Moreover, the risks taken by all people directly and indirectly influence each other. When the amount of risks is too large and the activity of taking risks takes place too frequently, then we lose ability to calculate the probability of the risks we are taking, then they turn to be uncertainties. My opinion is uncertainty is a risk that we do not understand.

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