Friday 23 March 2018

Financial decisions when the market is "boiling"



I want to use "boiling" to describe what the current financial market looks like. The market is as volatile as boiling water, it could hurt people in the market as well as create "steam" (opportunities) for the market. The function of financial markets is a place for people to borrow or lend their money, investment is a type of lending money. Consumption and investment could be put into separate categories that people do not make decisions correspondingly. This is because once people put some money into investment, they do not use the money generated by investment for consumption in short run. Because people expect their investment will generate positive returns eventually, they will not change consumption levels unless their salaries change significantly.

In such boiling market, people could have two directions that they can think that the trade war is undergoing and destroying the current world trade and business order, or they can think that the market is overreacting to the tariff increases. If you belong to the first group, then you will sell off all your holding risky assets and even short some assets; if you belong to the second group, then you think it is the time to buy assets at cheaper prices. Either side can provide reasonable argument to support their opinions. If you have made the mind, then do what you think is right to do. However, many people may be swinging between the two sides. Under such circumstance, you can either give up the opportunities or impose a hedge strategy.

However, it would be very risky for any investors to invest in the current financial market (of course, it implies there are more profitable opportunities in the market). Stock prices are very sensitive to information, bonds might abe a good alternative to stocks for those who are more risk averse.

No comments:

Post a Comment