Tuesday, 21 August 2018

The power of the president's word


Trump has been making comments about politics, media and other matters frequently on Twitter since he became a politician (or even earlier). Some of Trump's tweets contradict his government policies or the US fundamental values. The US Federal Reserve is planning to raise rates and this could increase the value of the USD. However, the US president definitely does not like the Fed's plan that he openly criticised the Fed chair who was nominated by himself about his rate hike plan. When Trump was still the candidate, he already publicly said, "I'm a low-interest-rate person". He also criticised the quantitative easing policy.

Trump's tweets do affect financial markets, as markets believe his tweets provide implications about his policy plans. Today his criticising tweet affects the Forex market and lowers the value of USD, the market believes his tweet may imply he will put pressure on the Fed chair to lower the USD value. Although some of Trump's promised policies do not come true, because of his US presidential power, he has power over influencing many things. Therefore, his words are very powerful.

When the words are powerful, then they can play magic. Trump can use his words to deliver a result without delivering the actual policy. Just like this time, Trump does not make any monetary policy change (he does not have the power though), he creates a result in his favour (the USD depreciated today). This has the same logic as the central bank guidance. When Trump speaks about something and markets believe in his words, then markets will react in response to his words just like the actual policy is made, and markets become what Trump wants without making any actual policy. Moreover, when Trump speaks about something, other Republican politicians will back him and make comments more credible, this ensures the power of Trump's words, since credibility is the magic of a president's words.

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