Monday 1 July 2019

Post G20 summit


This year's G20 summit has changed the global political and economic environment, especially the tension between China and the US has been havened. China purchased American soybeans ahead the G20 summit; after the US president, Donald Trump, met with the Chinese president, Trump seemed to soften his stance towards the Huawei ban and the two countries will resume the trade talk after the G20 summit. The gold price sinks, showing the market becomes more positive and optimistic about the global economy due to the eased trade tension.
Some hawks in the US are unhappy about Trump's shift on the Huawei ban; for example, Senator Marco Rubio tweeted "If President Trump has agreed to reverse recent sanctions against #Huawei he has made a catastrophic mistake". However, Trump's shift is a piece of very good news to the US tech companies. It means that chip makers can export their chips to Huawei; though some have found a way to get around the ban, this will still reduce the costs of exporting their chips. Google should also be very happy about Trump's shift. Without the ban, Huawei is highly likely to continue using Android as its smartphones' operating system, at least in its oversea market (in the Chinese market, Huawei may switch to using its own OS, and other Chinese smartphone makers are also likely to use this OS in their smartphones in the Chinese market).
Donald Trump only said that the US companies could continue selling to Huawei, it does not mean the US completely lifts the ban, Huawei will remain on the blacklist. Furthermore, I think that Huawei is highly likely to be excluded from the US 5G plan and the US will continue to see Huawei as a national security threat.

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