Thursday 3 December 2015

I don't think the ECB's decision will be effective.

The response to the ECB's decision of extending its QE is very negative. The stock market fell and many European countries' bond prices fell sharply today. People are tired about the ECB's continuous QE program with no end in sight. The result of the QE program is disappointing so far. Moreover, the ECB further cut its rate to minus 0.3 percent. This is a very radical move that a negative base rate can make the economy go either way. There could be a capital outflow from the Eurozone as people may feel insecure about the cash they are holding. The worst situation is "bank run" when people are extremely panic. In addition, cutting rates leads to a depreciation in the euro. This can increase the Eurozone coutnries' exports in order to help their domestic economic growth. Moreover, as people may feel insecure about the cash, people may want to spend as quickly as possible. This can boost consumptions but imports as well, as some of the countries rely on imports in certain sectors. Therefore, the improvement of some countries' current account is limited. Overall, I think the ECB's move could increase the inflation rate in a short term but will not make a significant improvement in the countries' economic performances.

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