Friday 4 December 2015

OPEC cannot achieve an agreement to push up oil prices in the short term

Many oil exporting countries are suffering from the low oil price, as the price is only half of the price a year ago. Saudi Arabia extended its outputs in November 2014, won the competition with the oil exporters who have higher production costs. Such move has helped Saudi Arabia win a larger market share, but damaged the possibility of cooperating with other oil exporters. In repeated games, when one player cheats once, in all future games, all players will not choose to cooperate with each other. Therefore, the unity within OPEC is much weaker now. In order to regain trust from other members, countries like Saudi Arabia have to give away some of their market shares to other member countries. If they do so, then the move of extending productions would become pointless, so I do not expect they can achieve any agreement to cooperate together to push up oil prices in the short term.

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