Wednesday 27 January 2016

The Fed is still trying to figure out the actual economy performance which is currently clouded by market shocks

The Fed's speech about opening choices of increasing interests offset the gains of the market from the oil price rise today. Under the current circumstance, everyone expects that the Fed will remain its current rates or even cut the rates, as the global economy is not performing well and the market has a very bad start of this year. I think the Fed wants to see how companies are actually doing and if the oil price could restore itself. If the finance reports released show that companies are doing relatively better than expected and the oil price rises back to its year ago level, then the Fed will continue its previous policy of gradually rising its rates. However, if the opposite things happen, the Fed will maintain or even lower its rates. Therefore, whatever the Fed is speaking of is not going to be the final decision. Actually I think even the Fed does not what its next move will be.

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