What is the most likely to cause a global economic disaster?

I read an article by Martin Wolf on Financial Times, about if it is likely to be another global economic disaster. Martin Wolf suggests that global economic disaster is an unlikely event. He suggests that there are three things to worry about in general: inflationary shocks, wars and financial crisis. He is optimistic about the global future performance but also lists some potential risks, such as central banks' balance sheets, the risks in emerging markets and geopolitical upheaval and conflict. I agree with Martin Wolf mostly; however, I think the three potential risks have different degrees of effects on our global economy. Considering the current low inflation levels, I think we do not need to worry too much about inflation, as a high inflation is not likely to occur in a short period. The risks in emerging markets have been realised by the market, meaning they are not unexpected risks. Expected risks are less likely to cause a major crisis in general, However, the geopolitical upheaval and conflict is the most uncertain risk among the three that can directly affect the global economy immediately. Therefore, I think if there is a global economic disaster, it is more likely to be caused by geopolitical upheaval and conflict.

Why global economic disaster is an unlikely event (by Martin Wolf): https://next.ft.com/content/db57a57e-b38b-11e5-b147-e5e5bba42e51