Friday 29 January 2016

The US economic growth from last quarter was lower than expected, but external risks are still what we mainly need to worry about.

The US economy in the fourth quarter of 2015 is reported to grow 0.7 percent, which is lower than many economists had predicted 0.8 percent. The economy expanded 2.4 percent in 2015. I think the US economic growth fell under expectation because of external risks. Consumer spending has made up two third of the economic output, and the US employment is close to full employment. However, the cause of the slowdown is due to external risks. Investment fell 2.4 percent due to the slide of the oil price. Moreover, exports fell because of the US dollar appreciation. These are all external causes. In the new year, 2016, these external shocks will continue, such as the oil price shocks, the EM slowdown. However, the Fed's decision on interest rates may be seen as an internal risk. In general, I believe the US economy will still perform better than other developed countries.

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