Monday 12 September 2016

What if Trump becomes the next US president?

The media do not like the idea of Trump's being the next US president, as there is much criticism about Mr Trump's speak and behavior and they see him as the symbol of the angry white lower classes. Maybe some American people and many people from other countries do not like Mr Trump to be the next president, when Hillary Clinton staggered and left a 9.11 memorial ceremony due to her health issue, the chance of Mr Trump's being the next American president increases, as due to common sense, people would like a healthy president rather than a sick one. People may need to get themselves ready for the Trump's at least 4 year presidential period.

What do we know about Mr Trump's policies if he gets elected? Although he changes many of his comments and arguments, we should expect a more strict migration regulation and an increase in military spending. As Mr Trump is not as experienced as Hillary Clinton in foreign policy, his strategy of foreign policy remains unclear; however, he makes clear that he wants more jobs to be created domestically, which means he would encourage firms to set up manufactures in the US. In order to achieve it, there is a possibility of increase tariffs on import consumer goods. Mr Trump's domestic economic policy is more clear, as he wants a less regulated market.

By adding all his policies up, we can see the US businesses may benefit from the less regulated and low tax rate markets; however, due to the tariffs, the cost of living of the ordinary American people may increase, and as the current unemployment rate is already very low, it is very hard to see a further improvement in the US employment. Frankly speaking, I do not see Mr Trump's policies really benefit the angry white lower class.

To conclude, if Mr Trump gets elected, I expect that the most traditional industries in the US may benefit from his policies while the growth in the clean energy industries may slow down as he is likely to remove the energy restrictions and more companies may choose the traditional energy due to the cost issue. Moreover, I do not think the general economic growth in the US will increase over the current level.

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