Sunday 4 September 2016

Would the emerging markets become the new center of the markets?

I read an article called "Global activity now led by the emerging economies" by Gavyn Davies (https://www.ft.com/content/30b50798-dce3-30de-a931-91a1b2d4e141). The author suggests that though technically speaking, the global activity is not led by the emerging economies, the importance of the emerging economies is increasing over time. However, in terms of market, the financial markets in the emerging economies are still partially isolated from the global market, which is formed by the financial markets of the developed economies.

Undeniably, there is a barrier between the financial markets of the emerging economies and the financial markets of the developed economies. The barrier is partially built by the conservative regulations. Because many emerging economies lack experience of regulating modern financial markets, some of them put restrictions on investors, including foreign investors, so the foreign investors are repelled away by these regulations which increase the foreign investors' costs, while some of the emerging economies have very open financial markets but lack necessary regulations on the markets, the chaos due to the lack of regulations repels investors away.

Therefore, when comparing the emerging markets and the developed markets, the emerging markets have not figured out the balance between openness and regulation. Being the center of the markets has to be available to be accessed from all over the world with orders. Moreover, when institutions are used to operating mainly in the developed markets, it has to give very attractive bonus profits to these institutions for switching their operation focuses to the emerging markets. Last time, the US replacing the UK as the center of the global financial market was definitely partially contributed by the two world wars. If any of the emerging markets wants to become the next center of the global market, it has to take much more effort and time to achieve this goal. I would say it could take at least a century to complete such change if no miracle happens.


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