Friday 9 December 2016

Could deglobalisation help to avoid a globalized crisis?

One of many problems that globalisation is argued to have is globalisation will increase the scale and size of an economic crisis as well as other types of crises. As currently there is a sign of a global scale of deglobalisation led by the populists, is it possible for such process to avoid a globalised crisis in the future?

It will depend on the extend of deglobalisation. If it is a limited political move and only aims to reduce the population mobility across countries, then as long as the global trading network exists, the economic crises can spread their influences across borders and become global scaled crises. However, if the deglobalisation becomes a limitless process that target all fields of the world societies, then we may expect a sharp reduction on the world economy at the start of the process, as when it is a globalised world, the scale effect of production will increase the productivity of production, and once the process of deglobalisation stars, such effect will disappear and drag down the global outputs. Afterwards, the economic growths in most of individual countries will be relatively slower than they are in the world economy, as they are only limited to the resources in their own regions. Of course, as the leverage effect created by the globalisation disappears, the size of a crisis could be limited as well, but due to the limited resources available, the resources that can be used to solve the crisis is limited as well. In addition, the close of borders can prevent domestic crises from spreading to other countries and prevent foreign crises from impacting the domestic economy. Similarly, the close of borders will close the door to foreign resources to borrow in the crises.

Overall, I still see that deglobalisation will limit the scale and size of crises due to lowering leverages but limit the amount of resources available as well, there is I think greater costs than benefits of deglobalization.

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