Friday 23 December 2016

What factors could indirectly influence currency values?

Yesterday I argued there are many factors that could indirectly influence currency values and could be controlled by the government. Today I am going to talk about such factors.  The currency value could be influenced by the base rate set by the central banks, individual country's trade position and economic expected performance.

These three factors could influence currency values and be controlled by the governments. However, some of these factors are indirectly controlled by the government. Firstly, the central banks are commonly independent from other government executives; therefore, the monetary policy decisions are made independently by the central banks and the governments should not directly influence the central banks. However, in most cases, the central bank shares the interest with the government as both parts want to make the economy stronger and stable and the government could speak to the public and put pressure on the central bank as many key members in the central bank are appointed by the government; therefore, the government does have a great degree of influence on the central bank. The trade position could be influenced by the tariffs and subsidies; however, such process could break some international trade deals and could potentially launch a trade war with other nations. The economic expected performance could be influence by the government through fiscal policy and taxation channels. Although such tools are assumed to be effective,  the economic performance is too complicated to be dominated by only one party. There are many parties taking part in the economy and having different impacts on the economy. Once the government does not have enough resources to dominate the rest players in the economy, the government's control of the economy could be much weaker. Of course, the government could use its legislation and executive powers to take control of the economy, but such movement could cause too much risk in the society as well as the economy.

Therefore, the government seems to have many tools to control its currency value, but many of these tools are limited and not as effective as we may assume.

No comments:

Post a Comment