Where is the turning point?

Today we learn that the US unemployment rate falls to the lowest since the crisis, it is a piece of good news; however, we should not ignore the phrase ‘since the crisis’, it means before the crisis, the US had even lower unemployment rate and better economic performance. Therefore, although the US economy and some other economies are performing well, we should be surprised if a serious financial or economic crisis hit us at the corner in the near future.

Sometimes a small change could turn everything upside down. The last crisis was I think directly triggered by the decision of the US Federal Reserve to increase the base rate, as it increased mortgage rates as well as the default rates. I think that a reverse move of previous monetary policies by the central bank could be one of the possible triggers. Moreover, starting a trade war could be another trigger. A trade war hurt the world economy, because it can reduce the global trading volumes as well the productions for exports. Then some countries will have an expansion in some unproductive industries as they no longer import as many as they demand; moreover, some countries' industries may suffer weak demands as their exports are cut by the trade war. This will all cause an economic slow down and increase the domestic inflation.