In some countries, the pension schemes are likely to fail in
next few decades; in order to avoid such situation from happening, these
countries are planning to lift up individuals and employers’ pension
contribution levels and delay retirement ages. It feels like that the current
working generation is paying for the current retired generation. As the later
generation is paying for the earlier generation, it feels to meet some
characteristics of a Ponzi scheme. However, my argument is that healthy pension
schemes should not be a Ponzi scheme and do not have any similar characteristics
of a Ponzi scheme.
If an insurance company only has one pension scheme client,
then the company uses this client’s current payment as the initial assets to
invest, with a good investment strategy and action, the investment generates an
accumulated positive return for the pensioner and the insurance company gets
some of the return as its revenue. In this case, it does not have any
characteristics of a Ponzi scheme. Such pension strategy should be followed by
all private pension providers. However, it may not be suitable for many state
pension schemes. As in some countries, state pension schemes are only started in
the late 20th century, some of the populations did not contribute to
their pensions from the beginning of their employment, the governments need to fill
in the missing contributions in order to give all individuals equal pension
benefits. Once the governments do not have the ability to provide sufficient
financial support for their state pension schemes, they have to use the younger
generation’s contribution to pay the older generation’s pension benefits, then
it looks like a Ponzi scheme. However, unlike a Ponzi scheme, a government can
fill in the shortage part with several payments, once the government fills the
gap, there should be no need for any future payments to the scheme from the
government and the pension scheme can be sustainable if it has good
management and investment strategies. Once the pension scheme is run in an
effective way, there is only one possible situation that the pension scheme
will not be able to generate sufficient funds to pay out pension benefits. This
situation is that the whole society and economy are in a long term negative
condition that there is a high unemployment rate and the economy is shrinking
without any growth. In this case, there is likely a deflation existing in the
economy so lower pension benefits could still give the retired population some
life security. And the most priority of the government is to rescue the society
and the economy instead of giving more money to the state pension schemes. Once
the society and the economy is picking, the returns of these pension schemes
will also be picking up, so they can then provide sufficient pension benefits.
Overall, pension schemes are definitely not a Ponzi scheme when
they are using a good management and investment strategies and they should be sustainable with some limited external support that may come
from the governments.
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