Thursday, 19 January 2017

Strong dollar or weak dollar?

The former Goldman Sachs banker, Steven Mnuchin, who is the nominee fro Treasury secretary, said that he supported the current strong dollar policy; however, a strong dollar policy is not widely agreed within Trump's team, even against many of Trump's proposals. It is a question that whether the US will benefit from strong dollar or weak dollar. And it is another question that which policy Trump and his team will follow once Trump becomes the US president.

A strong dollar policy could encourage more investment in the US and a weak dollar policy would improve the current US trading deficit. Both policies have their advantages and disadvantages; therefore, the US government will base on its priority to choose its policy pathway. The current Trump's team focus on gaining support from the US working class, based on this point it will choose to follow the weak dollar policy, and this is why Mnuchin changed his tone later after his statement supporting the strong dollar policy. However, many participants in the US society and economy welcome the strong dollar policy more, it may choose to a different policy. Weak dollar policy is more welcomed in the labour heavy industries; however, as the world financial centre, many banks are benefiting from the strong dollar policy that can attract more investment from overseas. Mnuchin's banker background lets Mnuchin support the long term strong dollar policy is not a surprise; and many from Trump's team are from similar backgrounds may also support the strong dollar policy. Therefore, it is very uncertain which policy the Trump's administration will follow in the future. Which policy will benefit the US more depends on the US economy structure; the current US economic outputs have a large proportion coming from labour light industries, so having a strong dollar policy does not make any harm on the US economy.

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