Friday, 20 October 2017

Can low interest rates really add inflationary pressure?



There have been several famous economists who have already written papers on arguing this topic; however, I still want to write some of my basic and rough comments on this question. Traditionally, a central bank is able to lower the base rates in order to add more inflationary pressure in the economy, as lower base rates are likely to lower the interest rates for companies and individuals to borrow money from banks, when borrowing becomes cheaper, it can stimulate more consumption and investment, thus increasing inflationary pressure.
However, from the consumption model (a microeconomics model), individuals make their consumption decisions based on their expected future incomes. Incomes involve two parts, one comes from working for employers and earning salaries, the other part comes from returns from owned wealth. If individuals expect their incomes will increase permanently (temporarily) in the future, they tend to increase their consumption permanently (temporarily). For individuals, their returns from their existing wealth (assets) depend on the interest rates, as the risk-free interest rates can be seen as the mean of their returns from investing their wealth. When the central bank decides to lower the base rates, it means to many individuals, their future expected returns from investing their wealth become lower. From this point of view, the decision of lowering interest rates is possible to lower individuals’ consumption.
Lowering interest rates may not lower consumption because of several reasons. Firstly, more and more people tend to borrow money to spend when the interest rates are low. Secondly, the changes in the interest rates are temporary shocks as they take place frequently, so individuals will not change their lifetime consumption levels. Thirdly, lowering interest rates may increase individuals’ salaries, when individuals receive higher salaries, they tend to increase their consumptions.

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