There have been several famous economists who have already
written papers on arguing this topic; however, I still want to write some of my
basic and rough comments on this question. Traditionally, a central bank is
able to lower the base rates in order to add more inflationary pressure in the
economy, as lower base rates are likely to lower the interest rates for
companies and individuals to borrow money from banks, when borrowing becomes
cheaper, it can stimulate more consumption and investment, thus increasing
inflationary pressure.
However, from the consumption model (a microeconomics
model), individuals make their consumption decisions based on their expected future
incomes. Incomes involve two parts, one comes from working for employers and
earning salaries, the other part comes from returns from owned wealth. If
individuals expect their incomes will increase permanently (temporarily) in the
future, they tend to increase their consumption permanently (temporarily). For
individuals, their returns from their existing wealth (assets) depend on the
interest rates, as the risk-free interest rates can be seen as the mean of
their returns from investing their wealth. When the central bank decides to
lower the base rates, it means to many individuals, their future expected
returns from investing their wealth become lower. From this point of view, the
decision of lowering interest rates is possible to lower individuals’
consumption.
Lowering interest rates may not lower consumption because of
several reasons. Firstly, more and more people tend to borrow money to spend
when the interest rates are low. Secondly, the changes in the interest rates
are temporary shocks as they take place frequently, so individuals will not
change their lifetime consumption levels. Thirdly, lowering interest rates may
increase individuals’ salaries, when individuals receive higher salaries, they
tend to increase their consumptions.
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