I will discuss what
the world financial market would be like without the US. The US is the largest
financial market in the world, it attracts the most investment all over the
world while it exports investment as well. The world financial market might become
incomplete without the US financial market, as the US banks and other financial
institutions are providing much more opportunities and financial instruments
for investors. Although more complex financial instruments can increase the
systematic risk as investors may find it difficult to completely understand
these instruments, which leads to the world financial market might have lower
systematic risk without the US financial market. Furthermore, the British gilt,
the German government bonds and even the Chinese government bonds would become
more expensive (their yields would decrease) without the US financial market,
since they are the best alternatives to the US Treasury bills.
As I said previously
the US is the world centre of investment and other financial activities, the
global financial market would require new orders and rules without the US.
London is currently the financial market centre in Europe, but its position
could change after Brexit. Shanghai, Hong Kong and Tokyo are battling for the
financial centre in Asia. The global financial market would have several years
without a centre if the US disappeared, this could worsen the efficiency and
productivity of the world financial activities and increase the transaction
costs.
The world financial
market would be worsened as losing efficiency, productivity and even
completeness, but the decentralized and simple system might have lower
systematic risk, if the US disappeared.
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