Tuesday 6 November 2018

Is Midterm that important?


The US midterm election has been under the spotlight for several weeks, the news media around the world has all been discussing about how important the US midterm election is. The US midterm election is definitely a great opportunity for both of the US political parties, especially for the Democratic Party. The importance of the midterm election is undoubted for the US domestic politics; however, is the midterm election similarly important for the global politics and the global economy?

If the prediction of the polls is correct, the Democratic party is likely to control the House and the Republican party is likely to defend its control over the Senate, and this is the most likely scenario. If the Democratic party controls the House, the investigation of Donald Trump's finances and Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential election; however, since the Democratic party does not control the Senate, the Democratic party cannot successfully impeach the current US president. However, this is not important for the global economy; what is really important for the global economy is how the US midterm determines the US future foreign policy. As long as Donald Trump is the US president and the Republican party controls the Senate, the US president will still have his influence over the US foreign policy and the US future foreign policy can hardly change, especially the US foreign policy against China. When the Democratic party can start to influence the US foreign policy, the US foreign policy regarding its policy in Europe, North America could return to its initial route before Trump became the US president. However, since Trump and the Republican party have convinced some of the US population about how Chinese take the US jobs, it would be unpopular for the US government to become friendly. Moreover, the political systems of the US and China are different, which can lead to further conflicts between the two countries; China has become the second most powerful country in the world, so China easily becomes the potential target of the US.

Overall, the midterm election is not very likely to have significant impacts on the US future foreign policy, so the importance of the midterm election may not be as important as many people expect in terms of its impact on the global economy and politics.

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