I would like to start a
question that if there are 25 people in a room, what the probability of two
people sharing their birthday. What is your answer? The correct answer is above
0.5. Generally the people who ask this question expect that the answer they will
get is lower than the correct answer. However, since this is a very famous
question, if people ask the others who are familiar with the question, the
answer they will get is going to be correct or very close to the correct
answer; under such circumstance, people do not get the answers they expect.
Therefore, to get what you want is dependent of who you are dealing with.
Sometimes people ask some
questions to economists, they might feel economists act selfishly to some
extend. However, this does not mean some economists are selfish, it is just
about the way of how economists think questions, economists tend to think
questions from the economics prospectives.
In the real world, sometimes
people are thinking about who they are dealing with are the ordinary people or
always the same group of people who share similar characteristics, especially
when they are dealing with people who they are not familiar with; however, this
is not true.
Overall, when people are
dealing with the others who share some specific characteristics, they should
expect that the outcome will drift away from the outcome they expect when
dealing with randomly selected people whose characteristics are not special and
match the mean of the entire population.
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