When thinking two sides

There is never a perfect answer to any real world problem and all solutions have their pros and cons. The most direct measurement to value the effectiveness of these solutions is to calculate their expected outcomes. However, we have to know the probabilities of all states. Moreover, it is not very accurate to use the historical record to estimate the probabilities, as the reason I have already discussed in one of my other blogs. To know the probabilities is entirely impossible; however, it is important to find an estimating method. To estimate the probabilities, we have to know the cause of each state. If it is a natural risk, such as earthquake, we can use the historical record, as the causes of such risk relatively remain unchanged. However, when it is caused by the uncertainty of human behaviour, then we can set up a model to estimate all people's preferences and as we assume all people maximise their personal profits, then we know they have several winning strategies and based to their winning probabilities we can estimate the probabilities of their different strategies. However, the disadvantages of such method is it requires a huge database and complicated data analysis processes.