Tuesday 9 August 2016

Are we entering an "Ice Age"?

The Bank of England's new bond-buying program got into trouble as pension funds and insurance companies refused to sell gilts to the central bank. The price of gilts will continue to rise even more rapidly when the Bank of England continues the program. Then the era of negative rate will eventually and inevitably come. It could be a disaster because entering the era of negative rate means we expect the future will be worse than the present and the general behaviour will become extremely risk averse. When we start to expect the future is worse than the present, we are very likely to experience a high inflation. Moreover, the investment strategy will freeze the economic growth. The phrase I use here "Ice Age" means people are too afraid of the uncertain future and refuse to invest in the future, then the economic growth could be frozen.

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