Thursday 18 August 2016

How likely is hyperinflation in the near future?

Some people are afraid of the possibility of hyperinflation in the near future, as they believe the overdone expansionary monetary policies will lead to a hyperinflation. So if it happens, is there any possible action for the government or the central bank to take to deal with the situation?

The definition of hyperinflation is when the monthly inflation rate is above 50% and  stays that way for at least a year. The 50% monthly inflation rate is a very big and abnormal figure that the yearly inflation rate in China never reaches 20% even during its fastest growth period. By doing simple maths, we can see the yearly inflation rate when hyperinflation exists is over 120 times (around 12975%). Although such inflation is very rate, we still have some examples from our history. Weimar Republic of Germany, Greece in the mid-20th century, Soviet Union between 1920 and 1922 and America during the revolutionary war are all very classical examples.

From these example, we are not very difficulty to conclude several major causes of hyperinflation. Firstly, oversupply of money could cause hyperinflation. Oversupply means the supply of money is over the growth of good and service production. Secondly, due to some extreme reasons, such as wars, natural disasters, the supply of goods and services cannot meet the demand of the population, especially when the supply of necessities cannot meet the social demand. My opinion is the second cause is the actual cause and much important than the first cause. Even when there is more than enough money in the market, if the supply of goods and services could meet the population demand, the excessive money is very likely to stay inactive and does not influence the market price, as the money may stay in bank accounts, bond markets and etc.

Therefore, I do not think a hyperinflation will hit the ordinary markets, and the prices of many of our goods and services will stay unchanged or even decrease as the cost of production drops due to technological improvement and the modern productive capacity is able to meet the demand of the populations in our economies. However, the financial market and the banking industry may have hyperinflation as the inactive money stays in the sector and becomes the burden of the banks and industries, negative deposit rates show that the banking and financial sectors want to get rid of the inactive money they are holding.


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