Wednesday 17 August 2016

What really does lowering interest rates mean to businesses when there is increasing uncertainty?

We often see that a central bank lowers its base rates and issues QE programmes when its economy is in a crisis. As we all know, the purpose of these actions is to encourage more financial activities and stimulate the economic growth. However, currently the monetary policies taken by the central banks around the world are a bit strange. Many central banks, especially those from the big economies, are maintaining very low base rates, that are very close or equal to the level when in crisis; meanwhile, though the people are afraid of increasing uncertainty, there is no obvious signal of the world economy is now in recession. In such environment, almost anyone is a loser.

Individuals may be able to borrow at lower rates, but often face more strict background checking from their banks. Moreover, after the last subprime crisis, some banks offer their clients mortgages with more tough agreements. Banks are also losers. Lower interest rates mean their marginal profits reduce and the increasing uncertainty limit their lending volumes, thus the profits and revenues of the banks could drop. Governments may benefit from such environment as they can borrow more easily as government bonds are very popular when there is increasing economic uncertainty; however, the primary purpose of government spending, which is to boost the economy and create safe nets for its people, is nowhere closer to be achieved. In addition, many governments are working to reduce their deficit levels, which means they are less likely to use expansionary fiscal policies to restore the market confidence. Small businesses are not benefiting from the lower rates due to the increasing uncertainty, as the banks are making their lending choices more cautiously and conservatively.

The only winner here is the large businesses. The bonds issued by the large businesses are considered to be the second best safe and risk-avoiding securities after the government bonds (mainly the US 10 year bond and the UK 10 year gilt). The large companies can have fantastic cash flows on their balance sheets and attract investors and banks. With the support from more investors and banks, they borrow more money and further improve their financial statements. Basically they do not need to worry much about their future performances any more and do not need to make investment choices more carefully. If they succeed in the future, great, they can borrow even more money to keep their businesses running. If they fail, don't worry too much, they may not be able to borrow more money, but many banks are willing to give enough money to keep them survive and even in the worst case, the governments will step in and pay their debts. Therefore, their future is very secure and they do not need to put much effort.

To conclude, the current low interest rate environment is not going to give incentives and momentum to the economy to grow faster.

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