Thursday 3 November 2016

How is the UK's future now?

Today (November 3rd) adds some uncertainties in the UK's future that the British High Court has ruled that the parliament must vote on whether the UK can start the process of leaving the EU. Some people may view this a positive element to the markets, as the current British financial markets and the sterling price have been deeply influenced the possibility of a hard Brexit suggested by the current UK Prime Minister, May. Although the UK government is appealing and another hearing is expected to take place next month, I do not think the possibility of the High Court's changing its decision is high.

There are other options for May to pull Britain out of the EU, for example, she can convince the MPs to vote in favor of Brexit, or call for an early general election. Therefore, May can still find a way to get around the problem of the High Court ruling, eventually the probability of Brexit is still very high and I think that it will happen, though we may consider the probability is lowered by the High Court ruling.

However, although I still believe Brexit will eventually happen, as the parliament now has been given the right to vote on this issue and the politicians are more likely to be influenced by the lobbyists as they require funding for their election campaigns; therefore, the government's focus on this issue may become more favorable towards the large businesses and banks that the trade deal with the EU will definitely become the top priority and the time schedule could become less important.

Therefore, I think that May's timetable for leaving the EU will be delayed by this High Court decision.

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