Monday 14 November 2016

Is there any protectionist policy without starting a trade war?

The US president-elected Trump is famous of his nationalism and protectionism. The world economy is afraid of a global scale of trade war, which will definitely damage the global economy.

I think that it is impossible to start any protectionist policy without a possibility of starting a trade war, actually trade wars always exist in some form of war even without other countries' moves towards protectionism. Once a country is in a weak position in terms of trading, this country is very likely to start some form of protectionist policies which can lead to a trade war.

Therefore, it may worthily ask if anyone could be less harmed or even gain some benefits during a trade war. From our past experience, the countries which initially start a trade war could benefit from the trade war in the beginning; however, in terms of long benefit, the countries which have the fastest innovation and development speed will benefit from the trade eventually. As it is impossible to have a trade war that lasts forever, once the trade war ends, the country with the most advanced domestic economy and industries will benefit from the reopening of the global market.

Overall, I think that a trade war will harm all countries in a general term; however, if any country could have a faster development speed than the others in the most profitable sectors under protection, once the global market reopens, it could be the biggest winner of the global economy.

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