Thursday 24 November 2016

It is an era of new opportunities and orders

China right now has a very good opportunity to strength its world power and economy because of several factors.

China is the third largest economy in the world, after the European Union economy and the American economy. These two economies are facing very serious internal divisions. Firstly, the European Union and the Eurozone is at the edge of collapse. The Brexit this June means Britain is highly likely to leave the European Union in the near future, thus at the time the British economy will be affected in a negative way as well the European Union will lose a strong support from one of the largest economies in Europe, the British economy, especially when the negotiation is forced into an ugly revenge action. Secondly, America now has a very divisive nation and the result of the recent presidential election actually widens the nation's division. In addition, the next American president with his party dominating both houses seems he will focus more on the domestic issues rather than the global issues. This means other countries may face less opposing force from America.

Besides the European and American factors, the low interest rate environment around the world means the Chinese companies with good performances can have lower costs of financing around the world, and their expansions could be a lot easier. The large Chinese population and land and resources build up a large production possibility frontier and I believe the current Chinese output is still not any near the edge of the frontier, as some of the Chinese population are not acting productively in the economy, especially those in the inner China.

However, China has to be aware several factors that may cause a sharp drop of the growth. Firstly, China has to maintain and stabilise its currency in the Forex market. China should avoid the Japanese economy collapse from the last century. Secondly, China has some national divisions as well, the rapid economic growth raise the issue of the widening wealth gap, especially the gaps not just between the classes but also between the regions. When we can narrow the wealth gap, we can expect an increase in the consumption, and consumption should replace exports and investment to become the drive of the Chinese economy. In addition, the opportunity gap is more serious than the wealth gap that some regions have far fewer opportunities than others, especially those on the eastern coast. This may lead some people trapped in poverty.

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