Sunday 20 November 2016

What does Brexit mean to the Eurozone?

Italy's referendum adds more uncertainties to the fortune of the euro. All three opposition parties in Italy want Italy to exit the Eurozone. When Italy wants to exit the Eurozone, other countries like Greece, will also take action to exit the Eurozone, this could lead to the collapse of the Eurozone due to the domino effect. Germany at the time will not have the power to stop this from happening.

If these relatively smaller economies exit the Eurozone, I think that the value of the euro could even appreciate as the remaining in the Eurozone are larger and stronger economies, like the German economy and the French economy. However, the increased value of the euro can harm the German and the French exports, especially when we expect the US is likely to launch a global trade war.

Britain could see an opportunity of an increase in its bargaining power when negotiating about the trade deal after Brexit. If Britain is able to stay in the EU, it is actually still a mutual benefit for both sides as Brexit will not break down the economic union in Europe. Free trade to many European countries has more benefits than costs; however, staying in the Eurozone makes some weak economies more and more difficult as they do not have the freedom of controlling its own monetary policies and their exports are not as competitive as those of stronger economies.

The possible of Italy's exiting the Eurozone could make Britain's Brexit negotiation easier, meanwhile the negotiation will also set up an example for Italy and other Eurozone countries who want to exit the Eurozone. Therefore, for the EU countries who want to exit the Eurozone, they want the Brexit negotiation to be easier, but for the countries like Germany, they want Brexit to be as hard as possible to set an example for the countries who are considering leaving the EU as well as the Eurozone.

No comments:

Post a Comment