How much does Bitcoin actually value?

 There are many debates about whether Bitcoin is currently overpriced or underpriced. I would like to propose a way to measure the value of Bitcoin. In the future, I expect that we will no longer need cash. No cash market would be very welcomed by governments and regulators since it is easy for them to monitor market activities. No cash market is not something that is difficult to achieve, all it needs is a common agreement that the society commonly agrees the numbers shown on our bank accounts have values, it is similar as we commonly agree the numbers on banknotes have values. However, once cash disappears, there is one group that may have to find an alternative to cash, this group is criminal groups and organizations. For them, the alternative is Bitcoin, it is even more untraceable than cash, helps them escape from governments' and regulators' monitoring. There is another group that may require Bitcoin as their medium of exchange, which is the population in the unrested countries. In these unrested countries, the governments lose their credibility, their issued banknotes do not have credit backup; when people do not trust their centralized fiat money, they turn to Bitcoin, this decentralized cybercurrency.

Since the criminal group and the populations in unrested countries need Bitcoin as their medium of exchange, when we sum up their market size in terms of USD and divided it by the total number of Bitcoin, we can get how much one Bitcoin values in terms of USD. There is a report suggesting criminal markets are now worth approximately 2 trillion USD a year, according to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, and the GDPs in Venezuela and Zimbabwe where the local people are reported to use Bitcoin as their median of exchange are 215.307 billion and 17.105 billion USD, and the theoretical total number of Bitcoin is 21 million, so the value of one Bitcoin is approximately 11076 dollars.

If you believe the criminal markets are larger than what is mentioned in this article or you believe the number of countries where people use Bitcoin is larger, then the value of Bitcoin could be higher than 11076 dollars; vice versa.