Friday, 23 February 2018

What happens when a bubble is forming?

 Bubble is basically a miscalculation or misestimation about the market fundamental value; however, since it is very difficult to value the market fundament, it is almost impossible to be 100% certain about the existence of bubbles in the market before they actually burst. Now the bitcoin price is still incredibly high, but there is no agreement on whether there is a bubble in the bitcoin market or not.

Since no one is certain about the existence of bubbles in the market, when the market price is rising, people tend to follow such lead, not only noise traders will do so, but sophisticated traders will also do the same, because of the momentum of the market, the best strategy is to ride the "bubble ". Moreover, because of greater fool theory, once people explore there is a possibility for a price to decrease, they quickly apply greater fool theory and rush to buy in the asset and sell off at a higher price, and others will do the similar things at different levels until the point when the bubble bursts. The initial driver might be a sensible fundamental improvement, but once people are making money from buying at low and selling at high, the momentum is built and the price rises and deviates from tis fundamental value, then the bubble is created.

Therefore, when one stock is increasing in its price and draws too much attention of the market, people will rush into the market and earn profits via greater fool theory without paying too much attention to the market, a bubble will be built.

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