Tuesday, 27 February 2018

Perfect substitutes rise in values together?

Bitcoin and other types of cybercurrencies are almost homogenous products for the same use. Microeconomics tells us that when a good increases in its demand, its substitutes will fall in prices. However, if we agree that all cybercurrencies are substitutes for each other, then their price changes should in opposite direction with one or another. There is one explanation for substitutes' prices move in the same direction, that is the values of substitutes have not been fully captured by the market. When all products still cannot satisfy the entire market demand, the prices for all will increase.

Therefore, if it is reasonable for all cybercurrencies increase in prices depends on if the total value of cybercurrencies capture its market. Yesterday I argued that the value of Bitcoin is approximately 11000 USD per Bitcoin. However, my calculation misses other cybercurrencies. If all cybercurrencies are included, Bitcoin should be valued as much. The total market for cybercurrencies would be shared between cybercurrencies. Of course, the cybercurrencies could choose to compete with each other; however, such competition is a very brutal one that only one winner will survive since all are homogenous products.

Based on my valuation of Bitcoin, the overall market for cybercurrencies have already been captured by today's value of cybercurrencies; therefore, a general increase in cybercurrencies' prices is a noise trading phenomenon.

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