Is Median Voter Theorem useful in the real world election?

Majority rule is used in making group decisions that the option will be chosen if it gets the most votes among all options. Median Voter Theorem suggests that if all voters have single-peaked preferences over a given ordering of policy alternatives in a single dimension, then a Condorcet winner always exists and it is the ideal point of the median voter. However, this theorem has multiple assumptions that are not necessarily realistic. The theorem suggests that political parties will move towards the median of voters’ political positions. In modern politics, usually, political parties behave like what the theorem suggests that they are trying to capture the interests of the ordinary people (the median group). However, there are anomalies in recent years. The US presidential election probably is the most obvious one. Hillary Clinton was definitely a classical politician that aimed to capture the interests of the median groups, like what the theorem suggests; however, on the other hand, Donald Trump was and still is not such classical politician, his supporters are often considered to be the extremist groups and he did not win the majority of the voters either. His success was of course contributed by the US electoral system but also was contributed by his unusual campaign strategy as well ( which I think was more crucial).

Voters’ interests are multi-dimensional and they are aiming to put weights on their different interests and choose their favoured politicians based on their sums of weighted interests. However, since people are emotional, their weights on different interests can vary when their tempers change. The two politicians have many policies and goals; due to different priorities, policies can vary. Trump was successful of making people put more weights on his priorities rather than Clinton’s priorities by very aggressive speeches and rallies. When people put more weights on Trump’s priorities, their sums of weighted interests shifted in favour of Trump and more of them tended to vote for Trump. This was I think a very important reason for Trump to get enough votes to become the US president. Also, this is a common strategy for some radical political parties to gain so much attention, as they are trying to make people get more emotional and agree on their political priorities.

To conclude, to win an election is not necessary to get close to the median (as suggested by Median Voter Theorem), it is possible to make voters emotional and more likely to put more weights on your political goals rather than your competitors’.