Friday 26 October 2018

How does fraud work?

Some people fall into fraud traps, even some of these are highly educated and very intelligent. Why do people fall into fraud traps? It is caused by information asymmetry that if there is perfect information, fraud is impossible to exist. I always believe that people always make their rationally best decisions while constrained to their limited resources including time; therefore, people fall into fraud traps because they are misled by the informationally asymmetric set-up and misestimate the payoffs from entering the trap.
There are several ways to create such informationally asymmetric set-up. The first way is to trick inexperienced or less educated people, as these people are very unlikely to create good estimations about their payoffs. The second way is to overstate the positive payoffs and the probability of succeeding. Such method aims to misguide people's expectations; moreover, people tend to overestimate the probability of having positive returns. Therefore, when the possible positive return is overstated, it can lead to further overestimation of the success probability. The third way is to overestimate the negative outcomes of not entering the trap. People are loss aversion, so they are afraid of suffering the losses they are told from not entering the trap.
Of course, there are other ways to make people easier to fall into fraud traps. However, other ways are there merely for supporting the main three ways mentioned above.

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