Wednesday, 17 October 2018

The world economy is at its edge



The world economy is not looking very good at the moment. Germany and France are preparing for a no-deal Brexit, the US government budget deficit reaches its 6 year high, and the development in the emerging markets has been affected by the increasing world trade tension. There is a wide divergence between the US financial market and the financial markets of the rest of the world, the US stock market is experiencing its longest bull time in its history. In addition, the world is entering an era of aging population.

The US government budget deficit reaches its 6 year high because the current Trump administration cuts the tax and increases the government expenditures for subsidizing the farmers hit by its own foreign policy, thus more government money is spent and lower tax incomes are received. Meanwhile, because of the Trump administration’s foreign policy, especially its trade policy, the cooperation across countries, especially between the US and the rest of the world, has been weakened. This will hurt the entire global trading system as a whole. The US government deficit is also alarming, as the high government deficit means the government at some point needs to increase its taxes and reduce its expenditures, which will slow down the economic growth and reduce the market incentives. Furthermore, the no-deal Brexit means the European political and economic structures for the past several decades will change eventually, as Britain has been playing a major role in Europe in terms of politics as well as economics.

Overall, the world economy is alarming according to so many warning signals.


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