Tuesday 12 March 2019

What’s ahead of the UK?

On Tuesday evening, the UK Parliament rejected the Brexit deal proposed by the Prime Minister and now the Parliament needs to vote on whether the UK will leave the European Union without a deal or not tomorrow. Though May lost her voice during the debate, she still provided us with a clear picture about what political decisions the UK Parliament has to face in the very near future (like tomorrow) after she gave her defeat speech. I do not think that the majority of the UK population will see a hard no-deal Brexit as a good strategy to play, but we cannot eliminate this probability since at this moment anything can happen. The more likely options seem to be the UK either holds another referendum or extend the process of exiting the EU. These were also unlikely options in the past that the Conservative Party, the majority party in the Parliament, did not back May for delaying Brexit and strongly opposed the idea of holding another referendum. This is why I think that all options are possible at this stage now. The Labour Party welcomes another referendum, but will definitely face a lot of opposition from the Conservatives. I think that uncertainty mainly comes from the Conservative Party. It is the majority party in the House, but so far I personally do not see what the majority of the Conservative MPs will support. There is only one thing that is clear with the Conservative Party, which is they do not support May’s deal; however, now they have to deliver something that at least satisfies the Conservative Party itself. So far I think for the next votes, the Conservative MPs will split their votes, and this may strengthen the Labour Party and deliver a result that is preferred by the Labour Party. Therefore, I personally think that another referendum is the most likely option and no-deal is the least likely option; but again who knows.

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