Future manufacturing and emerging markets' performances

The UN research (http://www.unido.org/fileadmin/user_media/Research_and_Statistics/WPs_2010/WP_1_2016_FINAL_fb.pdf)finds the share of manufacturing and manufacturing jobs in the average developing economy has fallen but the share of manufacturing and manufacturing jobs is at a record level. From this point, we can find that China are absorbing more and more manufacturing work and jobs from the entire world economy. I think this is a great piece of news for the Chinese economy but a sad piece of news for other emerging economies. This is not only because the study finds the Chinese economy takes a high proportion of jobs and work in manufacturing but it also implies the potential economic performance for China as well as other emerging markets.

In the future, many experts, companies and economists expect that the future world will belong to machinery and AIs. This is not out of many people's mind. Since the Industrial Revolution, people have been working with machinery for centuries. During the Industries Revolution, many people were afraid many people would have lost their jobs, but the history teaches that the development of machinery creates more jobs when we fully observed the use of the technology, more jobs were created and technology contributed to a great economic boom and a population boom; therefore, we may be a bit too pessimistic about the coming innovation of AI and machine learning. It is very likely to see a short term decrease in jobs and increase in the unemployment rate, but a long term increase in jobs and further economic expansion.

In China, enormous amount of resources have been pulled into the development of AI and machine learning. Such investment matches the future development trend, gives China an early start in the development of AI and machine learning. Because China had an early start than other emerging markets in the manufacturing sector, China has accumulated more resources and wealth than other emerging markets and given itself more advantages in the next generation. Moreover, if we believe that the manufacturing will be reshaped by the innovation of AI and machine learning, since China has kept the majority of manufacturing of the entire world economy and has the advantages in the development of the new technology, China can maintain its dominating position in the new era without too many challenges from other emerging markets. Therefore, I am quite confident that China can remain its dominating position among other emerging markets. Moreover, since the development of AI and machine learning will reduce the advantage of cheap labours, the countries with more skilful labours will experience greater economic growth in the coming era of AI and machine learning, this will limit the future development of emerging markets if they want to use their cheap labour forces to copy the success of China. From this point of view, some Asian countries, like India, may be able to catch up with China and the developed world; however, other emerging markets including some Africans will be left further back from the rest of the world.