Tuesday 29 August 2017

What are the completely random events


Yesterday I talked about some events are completely random and these events are the fundamental causes for the uncertainties in the real world, today I want to talk what are these completely random events.

There are several causes for the completely random events. Firstly, information asymmetry is one and I think the most common cause for completely random events. In some cases, people are unknown to some information and they have to make some decisions about some unknown future events or situations; therefore, their decisions to the uncertain events (in their minds) are also uncertain. Though the future events could be certain, due to information asymmetry, from their subjective views, the future events are uncertain. Secondly, uncertainty could be caused by natural randomness. Natural randomness include natural disaster (earthquakes). Thirdly, our human beings can create uncertainties by ourselves. Sometimes we are emotional and can conduct some irrational activities. Once the irrational activities can other events, it implies once everyone is rational, the outcomes can be certain; however, due to the existence of irrational activities, some events can also have different outcomes from a completely rational society. Fourthly, our experiences can be a source of uncertainties. Everyone of us experience different events and we are making decisions based on our previous experiences. Therefore, due to different experiences, people can have different judgments about same things, thus having different opinions about the decisions made and others' expected actions. When people have different opinions, they are likely to find out the outcomes that do not match their expectations. They may feel these events are uncertain; however, the cause of such experience is because all participants' different experiences lead to taking activities that do not match perfectly participants' individual expectations.

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