A total solar eclipse occurred in the US today, to many American people, it was a valuable experience in their lives; however, to me, it was relatively negative, as holding several solar firms' shares, it was a bad day for me. The solar industry was hit by the solar eclipse since bankers and investors believe that the solar grid would be harmed by this event.
Though the solar eclipse was not a black swan event and First Solar spent a year planning for the eclipse, because of the lack of the confidence about our current solar technology, the market in general still believed that a big megawatt drop could occur.
From this event, I see that the market is still relatively short-sighted and has limited access to information. Firstly, the solar eclipse as I just said was not a black swan event, its coming was fully predictable and it was not even an uncertain event. However, under such circumstance, we can see that investors only reacted to this event on the day it happened. Last Friday, there had not been a big shock in the solar industry. The theory says that the formation of share price should involve all relevant factors and discount rates; therefore, theoretically speaking, the solar eclipse should have already been considered in the share pricing since their IPOs. Secondly, an event should shift people's beliefs. Previously people did not question the reliability of the solar power; however, once the eclipse occurred, investors suddenly increased their concerns about the reliability of the solar power, as the event is tightly related to the reliability. Thirdly, there is no 100% security in terms of our technology. It is fragile when our new technology faces the nature force.
To conclude, from today's solar eclipse, I find that people's feeling about one thing is changing when approaching to its appearing and judgment has changed over time progresses.
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