Wednesday 16 January 2019

Is no-deal Brexit so frightening?


2019 seems already getting very exciting. The US government is experiencing the longest government shutdown in the US history and the UK Prime Minister merely survived the no confidence vote today with a tiny majority of 19 (325 to 306). May just suffered an embarrassing defeat in her Brexit plan and she has to re-negotiate with the political parties in the UK and the leaders of the EU about the Brexit issue. From her speech after her survival in the UK Parliament, I think that she is doing what she was always doing over the past weeks, which is seeking support from her party and her opposite parties, since she said she would start to have individual talks about other party leaders; however, I do not think that this will work because this has been proven to be not working by her defeat in her Brexit deal. If she continues this path and assumes that she cannot get a better deal from the EU, then it is highly likely to lead the UK to a no-Brexit situation or a no-deal Brexit. The UK population voted for Brexit, so the Parliament does not want a no-Brexit situation unless there is another referendum that the British people vote for staying in the EU. Therefore, it seems that no-deal Brexit is the most likely to happen. 

Many people are frightened about a no-deal Brexit that the House of Parliament strongly opposes a no-deal Brexit. However, how harmful would a no-deal Brexit be for the British economy? I think that there is some chance that the UK can still enjoy free trade with the EU even with a no-deal Brexit. If the UK and the EU place tariffs on each other after a no-deal Brexit, both sides will suffer economic damage. The UK is the largest exporting market for many European car makers, because they have manufactures in China and the US. Even some car makers have their factory plants in the UK, these plants still rely on importing parts from their European manufactures. For other industries, similar problems will also occur. Therefore, it seems that it is mutually beneficial for both sides not to place tariffs on each other. Moreover, though no-deal Brexit will hurt the UK financial industry, with the help of technology, it is possible to limit the damage. 

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