Wednesday, 23 January 2019

Really? The economic risk is not significant in 2019?


Several days ago, I was discussing the Davos 2019 Global Risks Report might underestimate the economic risk the asset bubble risk is listed as the 10th risk in terms of likelihood and no economy or finance relating risk is listed on the top 10 risks in terms of impact. Maybe we are facing too many and too significant risks that relatively the economic risk seems not very significant; or the significance and the likelihood of the economic are underestimated; or the estimation is accurate and the economic risk is not significant in fact.

I still think the significance and the likelihood of the economy relating risks are underestimated in the Report. In Davos, Wang Qishan, China's vice-president, acknowledged the Chinese economy was facing risks including unilateralism, protection and populism, just like other major economies but insisted that the sustainable growth in the economy can be maintained that though 'speed does matter', the 'quality and efficiency; of growth is more important. Though the statement is very positive about the Chinese economy, it shows that the Chinese government realises the panic about the slowdown and unsustainable growth in the emerging markets has brought negative impacts on the Chinese economy and it is necessary to calm the market.

In addition, China is not the only country that dismisses the downside of its economy, the prime minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, dismissed the defeatism about Japan and laid out two main priorities for the G20 which will host a summit in Osaka in June: the international governance of data flows and the promotion of technological innovation to tackle environmental issues. However, Japanese exports shrank at the fastest pace in two years and the year-on-year drop was 3.8 per cent, and Japanese exports to China dropped by 7 per cent.

Britain is stuck in Brexit chaos and the US government is experiencing the longest shutdown in its history. I cannot see why more economic risks are not significant enough to be listed on the Top 10 in the Risks Report.

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