The Iran Deal

The US president, Donald Trump, has made it clear that the US will pull itself out of the Iran Deal. Though other countries (excluding Iran) have announced that they will remain in the deal despite the US's decision, many of the companies that are operating in Iran after the sanction was eased are re-analysing their investment in Iran after the US pulls itself out of the Iran Deal.

Some companies say that they will move out of the Iran because they are afraid of facing new sanctions from the US after the US withdraws from the Iran Deal. Some analysts believe that after the European companies move out of Europe, China will be the largest winner in Iran. The Chinese companies in Iran are largely state-owned, and most of them can get around of doing businesses directly with the US, so they are less worried about the sanctions after the US withdraws the Iran Deal.

Iran is an oil-rich country. When new sanctions are placed on Iran, it will add increasing pressure on the oil price, as the upcoming sanction is likely to lower the global oil supply as Iran will find it harder to export oil. Meanwhile, the oil price in China may be more stable, as the Chinese companies are much less affected by the shift in the US attitude towards the Iran Deal, and the supply of oil in the Chinese market is less affected. Of course, the Chinese companies may sell some oil to the countries which remain in the Iran Deal and make some profits and stabilise the global oil price; however, I do not think this will happen, because the US will not allow the Chinese companies to do so and the Chinese companies will not have the willingness to do so (they are state-owned and serve the interests of the nation, China is still at the developing stage, its demand for oil is massive and China also wants to have larger amount of oil reserve).

In general, when the US pulls itself out of the Iran Deal, the global oil price is highly likely to increase while the oil price in China may be the exception and more stable comparing with the global oil price since the Chinese companies are less affected by the US's attitude towards the Iran Deal.