My view on "Brexit"

I do not think Britain will leave the EU this summer, as staying in the EU has a relatively stronger political support and support from the industries. However, it is still worth thinking about the gains and losses of staying in the EU. The direct benefit is that staying in the EU has less uncertainty of its economic growth. It is easier for the market to predict the British economy's future move if it stays in the EU; however, if Britain leaves the EU, many companies in the UK may reconsider their business structures as many of the multinational companies locate their Europe central offices in the UK and they relocate their European central offices when Britain leaves the EU. If companies relocate their European central offices, the employment and income in Britain may be affected. In addition, staying in the EU can maintain Britain's current trade account, especially exports. However, leaving the EU has its benefits as well. Leaving the EU can reduce its political and economic dependence from the EU. Countries which are in deep deficit may slow down the British economic growth. Greece and some countries have debated about if they have to continue their austerity policies. If they decide not to follow austerity, the budget deficit burdens on these countries may be shared between all the EU member countries. Leaving the EU will allow Britain not to pay for other countries' mistakes. The government may be able to increase its tax incomes when Britain does not need to follow the EU trade agreement. To conclude, leaving the EU is a very risky move, it is hard to see its effect on Britain right now. I think leaving the EU and staying in the EU have very close expected returns to the UK; however, if British people are risk averse, it is sensible to stay in the EU.