Friday 26 February 2016

The US economy could continue its outstanding performance, but the risk remains


The US GDP beats expectation. This is great, but what happens next? The US economy has been outperforming the expectation, which shows that there is a high probability of the US economy to continue its performance despite the economic problems taking place in other regions of the world. The US dollar is more than just a type of currency, it is the international reserve currency. Given its continuous strong performances and the largest economy in the world, the US dollar is very likely to continue to appreciate when the future of the world economy is clouded. As we can see today, after the announcement of the US GDP growth, the US dollar appreciates sharply, against most of currencies. And the US dollar has been relatively very strong recently. In addition, from the recent job report, the US employment rate and average income both increase. This is a sign of the market confidence in the US economy. However, some parts of the US economy do not perform so well. The service sector shrinks for the first time since 2013. This could cause a rise in the unemployment in the future. More importantly, the service sector accounts for the bulk of the US labour market. Therefore, it is crucial for the entire US economy if the employment in the service sector decreases. In conclusion, the US economy will continue its good performance compared with other economies in the world; the risk of falling in contraction remains due to the external factors, the US dollar appreciation and its shrinking service sector.

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