Thursday 11 February 2016

To what extent can low government bond yield help to increase inflation rates


10-year Japanese government bond yield fell below zero; moreover, currently many 10-year government bond yields are close to zero, including the US and UK government bonds. Very low government bond yields could improve government financing itself, as the cost of borrowing becomes cheaper. Therefore, a government could increase its expenditure by taking advantage of negative government bond yields and borrowing more. When more cash is flowing into the economy, there is a higher probability that the inflation rate will be increased. However, very low government bond yield could have negative impacts on the market, as it is a signal of the economic performance. Low government bond yields signal high risks in the economy as well as the financial markets, which could prevent people from further investment. Moreover, the change in yields is usually a market's move. This means when the yield is very low, the economy is definitely in bad shape. The government cannot directly influence the yields except by borrowing more, as the interest rates will not be increased by the central bank when there is a recession. Therefore, the impact on the inflation rate will depend on how much more money the government raises for its expenditure and how much less money has been withdrawn from investment and consumption sectors due to the signals sent by low government yield.

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