10-year
Japanese government bond yield falls below zero, which means investing in risk
free assets will have negative returns, if we assume 10-year Japanese
government bond is risk free according to its good record. This is caused by people's concerns about
the Japanese economy as well as the world economy. However, this leads to other
questions that how commercial bank interest rates could change. Deposits saving
in banks are usually considered as risk free as well; however, when there is a
bank run, it will be no longer to be risk free. Therefore, commercial bank
interest rates cannot be lowered, as lowering interest rates could increase the
risk of bank runs, as the public may be afraid of having negative interest
rates. However, if the interest rates stay high, banks have to find effective ways to seek profits. Under the
current circumstances, profits earned from lending are cut by the decrease in
investment due to worries over the health of the world economy. Therefore,
banks may face another big problem after the financial crisis. In addition,
storing cash at home could also be considered as almost low risk. Cash has a
constant nominal returns of zero. Especially under the environment of
deflation, cash becomes a better choice compared with other types of
investment. This largely increases the probability of bank runs. Therefore, I
think that the negative 10-year government bond yield may be signaling another
financial crisis in Japan; meanwhile we can many other economies have similar
conditions as Japan does, which is very worrying.
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